Will the RBA Increase Interest Rates? Decision Day Eve, 3 November 2026
The RBA board meets tomorrow, and the short answer is: markets think so. ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures currently imply a 77.6% probability of a 25bp hike, which would take the cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85% — the fifth increase of this cycle, and the second in a row after September's move.
What's actually priced in
The market isn't just leaning hike — it's pricing a specific, clean outcome. The implied rate for tomorrow's meeting is 4.794%, a gap of +19.4bps above the current 4.60% target. The RBA moves in 25bp steps, so that gap reads as roughly 78% of one full hike — which is exactly where the 77.6% probability comes from.
That's up from 60.0% a week ago and just 22.4% in mid-October — see our deep dive on that move for the day-by-day record. The rise since then has one clear cause.
The September CPI print confirmed the hawkish case
Through October, hike odds were driven by rhetoric: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser calling the inflation outlook "materially worse" than forecast was enough on its own to jump odds from 22.4% to over 60%. What's changed since is that the data has now backed the rhetoric up. The September quarter CPI print landed hot, and headlines this week have been unambiguous — outlets are describing the bank as "on course for a second consecutive rate rise" with inflation "remaining stubborn."
That combination — a deputy governor pre-warning the market, followed by a CPI print that confirms it — is about as clean a setup for a rate move as this tracker has recorded all year.
It's not unanimous
Not every economist agrees a hike is the right call. A dissenting group has publicly urged the RBA to hold, arguing the economy is already slowing and borrowers are bearing the brunt of the tightening cycle. House prices have now fallen for seven consecutive months, and mortgage stress stories have become a fixture of this week's coverage. The market's 77.6% isn't 100% — nearly a quarter of priced probability still sits with a hold, which is a real, not token, chance the board pauses.
What a hike would mean for your mortgage
A 0.25% increase adds roughly $125 a month to a $600,000 variable-rate mortgage. For the mechanics across different loan sizes, see our mortgage impact breakdown. If you're on a variable rate and haven't reviewed your loan in a while, now — before the decision, not after — is the more useful time to do it.
What to watch tomorrow
- The 2:30pm AEDT decision and statement. A hike confirms the market was right; a hold would be a genuine surprise given current pricing, and the statement's language on "further tightening" will matter more than the decision itself either way.
- The December meeting's pricing after the fact. Right now markets see December's hike odds at a much lower 18.4% — this is priced as a single move, not the start of a rapid series. Watch whether that holds or shifts once tomorrow's outcome is known.
- Live odds, updated through the day. ASX futures keep trading right up until the decision — check the homepage for the number as it stands when you're reading this, not just this article's snapshot from 2 November.