About RBA Watch
RBA Watch is an independent, free tool built to make professional-grade interest rate market data accessible to everyone — not just traders with Bloomberg terminals. The Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate affects every Australian with a mortgage, a savings account, or a business loan, yet the data that professional investors use to track rate expectations has historically been opaque or paywalled.
We take the same ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures data that institutional traders watch, run it through a transparent, published methodology, and present it as a live, easy-to-read dashboard — updated automatically every business day after the ASX market close.
Who this is for
- Mortgage holders — particularly those on variable-rate home loans who want to understand the probability of their repayments changing at the next RBA board meeting
- Retail investors — tracking interest rate risk across equities, REITs, and fixed income portfolios
- Business owners — anticipating borrowing cost changes for cash flow planning
- Financial journalists and analysts — who need a quick, reliable source for market-implied probabilities
- Students and curious readers — learning how monetary policy and financial markets interact
How the site works
A data pipeline runs automatically each weekday evening after the ASX closes, pulling the latest 30-day interbank futures settlement prices and converting them into cut/hold/hike probabilities for each upcoming RBA board meeting. The full calculation is published in detail on our Methodology page so anyone can verify or challenge the numbers.
Independence & disclosure
RBA Watch is an independent publication. We are not affiliated with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian Securities Exchange, or any bank or financial institution. All data is sourced from publicly available ASX market data. The site may display advertising and affiliate links to help cover running costs — this never influences the probabilities or data we publish, which are calculated mechanically from market prices.
Get in touch
Questions, corrections, or feedback? Visit our Contact page — we read every message.