Analysis & Commentary
RBA Rate Analysis & Commentary
Data-driven insights on RBA monetary policy, ASX futures pricing, and the Australian cash rate outlook. All analysis is grounded in real market data — no guesswork.
Topics
Will the RBA Raise Rates Again? The September Quarter CPI Will Decide
Markets trimmed their hike bets after a softer August CPI — but elevated oil, booming AI investment and sticky domestic inflation keep a November rate rise live. The September quarter trimmed mean will decide.
Will the RBA Cut Rates in 2026? What Markets Are Pricing In
ASX futures markets are pricing zero probability of a rate cut for the remainder of 2026 — but a 27% chance of a hike by November. Here's what the data says about the RBA rate outlook and what could change the picture.
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More analysis coming soon
We publish data-driven RBA analysis around each board meeting and major economic release. Check back after the next CPI or employment data drop.