Next Meeting
Probability of each outcome
Implied Rate Path
Market-implied cash rate across upcoming meetings
| Meeting Date | Consensus | Probability | Implied Rate | Δ (bps) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
💰 What does this mean for your mortgage?
Loading…
How to read this
The probabilities shown are derived from ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures — financial contracts that price in market expectations for the RBA's overnight cash rate. They represent the current market consensus, not a forecast or guarantee.
A probability of 75% for "Hold" means that, based on current futures pricing, markets believe there is a 75% chance the RBA will keep rates unchanged at that meeting. These probabilities change daily as new economic data (inflation, employment, GDP) and RBA communications are released.
Data source: ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, updated daily after market close (4:00 PM AEST). Not financial advice. For personalised mortgage advice, speak with a licensed broker.