Ask ten economists where the RBA cash rate is heading and you'll get ten answers. Ask the futures market and you get one — backed by real money. That's why the sharpest way to read an RBA cash rate forecast isn't a bank press release; it's the price of ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, where traders bet daily on exactly where the cash rate will sit at each future RBA meeting.

Why the futures market is the best forecast

Bank economists revise their forecasts a handful of times a year and are often anchored to their last published view. The futures market reprices every single trading day as new data lands — CPI, employment, retail sales, global shocks. Because traders stand to gain or lose real money, the implied path reflects the collective, up-to-the-minute consensus rather than any single institution's house view.

The ASX 30-day interbank contract settles against the actual RBA overnight cash rate, so it is tied directly to the policy rate the RBA sets — not to bank lending rates or BBSW. That makes it uniquely clean for extracting a cash rate forecast.

What the curve is pricing now

As of writing, the cash rate sits at 4.60% after the RBA's September increase — the highest level since 2011. The futures curve implies a gradual drift higher over the following year before flattening, with no cut fully priced in the near term. But these numbers move daily, so rather than quote a snapshot that will be stale tomorrow, the live, always-current curve lives on the RBA Watch homepage and the next-meeting page.

How this compares to bank forecasts

Bank economists currently diverge: some see the cash rate on hold through the rest of 2026, others pencil in one or two further hikes to a peak near 4.85%. The futures curve typically sits somewhere in the middle of these views — and, crucially, updates the instant the data shifts rather than waiting for the next forecast round. When a bank and the market disagree, the market is telling you where the money is actually positioned.

What could change the forecast

• Inflation surprises — especially the quarterly trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred underlying gauge.
• The labour market — a rising unemployment rate would pull the curve lower; continued tightness pushes it higher.
• The Australian dollar and oil — a weaker AUD or higher energy prices import inflation and lift the curve.
• Global central banks — the US Fed's path strongly influences the AUD and, indirectly, the RBA.